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Old Farmer's Almanac predicts snowy start to winter in Guelph

The area could get a significant amount of the white stuff early in the season, but the worst will be behind us by the end of January, says almanac
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Tony Saxon/GuelphToday file photo

The area may be able to look forward to a milder than usual winter, but watch out for significant snow early in the season, says Jack Burnett, managing editor of the Old Farmer’s Almanac. 

“We’ll look for the snow to kind of front load, if I can use that term,” Burnett said, explaining the almanac’s indicators point to heavy snow starting to show up around the middle of November and continuing through the first week of December. 

The first week of January is also looking pretty white. 

“From Jan. 4 to Jan. 7, it looks to me like there’s going to be a really heavy snow storm in the Guelph area,” Burnett said. 

In general, Guelph and area residents can expect this winter to be slightly less cold than average, but also wetter with more sleet and freezing rain, Burnett explained. 

Temperature wise, the worst of winter, “the real hardcore cold stretches” will likely be behind us by the end of January, Burnett said.

The Old Farmer's Almanac has been using the same methodology to develop long range forecasts for the 231 years its been in existence, Burnett said. It makes predictions based on three factors: meteorology, which includes localized weather patterns, climatology which involves long term weather trends, and finally the effects of sun spots and solar radiation.

Burnett said the publication has around an 80 per cent accuracy rate.

Meanwhile Environment Canada reports early indications show warmer than average temperatures could be in the cards for Guelph this winter, driven by the climatological phenomenon known as La Niña. 

The global weather event will affect different regions of the country differently, but in southern Ontario La Niña typically means above normal temperatures, Environment Canada meteorologist Steven Flisfeder said. 

“And depending on where you are exactly it could be little bit wetter, and so for the Guelph area we are kind of looking at a bit of an increase in precipitation due to the La Nina,” he continued. 

However Flisfeder cautioned "it's little early to be getting a full picture of winter" and even if meteorologists might expect a warmer winter on average, day to day conditions can very wildly. 

“Certainly, people in southwestern Ontario especially know that the temperatures can swing drastically,"  Flisfeder said. "There can be one day that is sunny and warm with no precipitation, and then the next day, you could be in the middle of a snow squall. So I think it's important for people to continuously check their weather forecasts so that they know what to expect from day to day."